Sophie Devine’s incredible power-hitting has been a lifeline for the Royal Challengers Bangalore in the Women’s T20 Challenge (WPL). However, UP Warriorz’s recent win against Mumbai Indians has strengthened their chances of taking the third playoff spot, which even a Devine intervention might not be able to prevent. With only four games left in the league stage, let’s take a closer look at the qualification prospects for the three bottom-placed teams.
Can the Royal Challengers overcome their net-run-rate deficit and take the third spot? As of now, the Royal Challengers have an NRR of -1.044 after seven games, while Gujarat Giants have an NRR of -2.511 after the same number of games, and UP Warriorz have an NRR of -0.117 after six games. For the Royal Challengers to have a chance, they need to win their last game and move to six points, while the Warriorz lose their last two games against the Giants and Delhi Capitals.
If these three results pan out, then three teams will be level on six points, and the NRR will come into play. Assuming a 40-run margin in each of those three games, with the winning team scoring 160, the NRRs will look like this: Warriorz -0.612, Royal Challengers -0.628, and Giants -1.893. This means that the Royal Challengers will need a slightly bigger margin in one of those games – a win by 43 runs, for example – to go past Warriorz’s NRR.
Despite the odds, the Royal Challengers still have a shot at qualification, but they need several things to go their way, both in terms of results and their margins. On the other hand, the Gujarat Giants are so far behind on run rate that their chances of qualification are slim to none. Even if they beat Warriorz by 100 runs, they will still need Warriorz to lose to the Capitals by 112 runs to move ahead of them on NRR. Apart from these improbable results, they will also need the Royal Challengers to lose their last game to Mumbai.
What about the UP Warriorz? If they win one of their last two games, they will be through to the playoffs. They might even qualify with two defeats if they lose by narrow margins.
Lastly, do the Delhi Capitals have a chance of taking the top spot away from Mumbai? If the Capitals beat Mumbai on Monday, then both teams will be level on 10 points with their last game coming up on Tuesday. Mumbai will play against Royal Challengers, and Capitals will play against Warriorz. Therefore, the Capitals have a shot at the top spot, although their NRR is poorer than that of Mumbai’s (1.431 compared to 2.670). However, if the Capitals lose on Monday, then Mumbai Indians will be assured of the top spot.
